Harris Gains Slight Edge Over Trump in Key Battleground of Pennsylvania

Harris Gains Slight Edge Over Trump in Key Battleground of Pennsylvania

Harris Gains Slight Edge Over Trump in Key Battleground of Pennsylvania

Recent polling from Pennsylvania, one of the most critical battleground states in the 2024 presidential election, suggests Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by a slim margin. The poll, conducted by USA Today/Suffolk University between September 11 and 14, shows Harris holding a 49% to 46% advantage over Trump among likely voters in the state. While this lead is within the poll’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, it offers a glimpse into how competitive the race is in a state that has long been pivotal in determining the outcome of presidential elections.

With Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes up for grabs, both candidates have devoted significant time and resources to the state. It has been the focus of major advertising campaigns, and both candidates have visited frequently. The poll data also reveals deeper trends, particularly a widening gender gap. Harris enjoys a significant 17-point lead over Trump among female voters, while Trump leads by a smaller margin of 12 points among men. This gender divide appears to be a driving factor behind Harris’ current advantage in Pennsylvania.

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Adding to the intrigue, two key counties in Pennsylvania—Erie and Northampton, historically bellwether regions—are also showing Harris in the lead. These counties have been reliable predictors of which candidate wins the state. According to the poll, Harris is ahead by mid-single digits in both areas, further bolstering her position.

Nationally, Harris is maintaining a slight lead over Trump, and this has shifted the focus onto the Electoral College. Pollster Nate Silver has indicated that despite Harris' national lead, Trump could still win through the Electoral College, giving him a 56.2% chance of doing so. This echoes a scenario similar to the 2016 election, where Trump lost the popular vote but secured an Electoral College victory.

As the November 5 election day approaches, Pennsylvania remains at the center of both campaigns. This latest poll suggests a tight race, with neither candidate having a definitive advantage. Both sides are expected to ramp up efforts in Pennsylvania as the election nears, as winning this state could make or break their paths to the White House. With just 50 days left, the race in Pennsylvania is far from over, and its outcome could once again be the deciding factor in the presidential election.

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