What Happens if the Bailey Smith Trade Deal Fails?
The Bailey Smith trade saga has become one of the most talked-about stories of the 2024 AFL Trade Period. As the deadline approaches, Smith's desired move from the Western Bulldogs to Geelong is hanging in the balance. With less than 48 hours remaining, the Cats and Bulldogs are yet to agree on a deal. Geelong has offered their first-round draft pick, No. 17, in exchange for the 23-year-old midfielder. However, the Bulldogs are holding out for more, creating a standoff that could see the deal fall through.
If the two clubs can't come to an agreement by the trade period deadline, the situation becomes complicated for both sides. Smith’s contract with the Bulldogs expires at the end of October, leaving him as an uncontracted player starting November 1. This means the Bulldogs would lose him without receiving any compensation unless a trade is completed. On the other hand, Geelong has an option to still acquire Smith through the draft in November, though this route comes with risks.
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Smith could nominate for either the National Draft or the Pre-Season Draft, but in either scenario, Geelong faces competition from other clubs who could snap him up before their pick arrives. The Cats’ first pick in the National Draft is at No. 17, with 10 other clubs having earlier selections, and even more clubs would have the opportunity to pick him in the Pre-Season Draft. This leaves Geelong in a vulnerable position, as any rival club could swoop in and take Smith before Geelong has the chance.
The Bulldogs, too, are in a difficult position. If they don’t complete a trade, they risk getting nothing for a player of Smith’s caliber. As the trade period clock ticks down, the pressure is mounting on both clubs. Geelong could hold firm, betting on acquiring Smith through the draft, but this is a gamble that could leave both sides with less than they hoped for.
For Smith, the uncertainty is immense. If the trade deal falls apart, he will face several more weeks of waiting before knowing where he’ll play next. The next few hours will be critical as both the Bulldogs and the Cats decide whether to find a middle ground or let the chips fall where they may.
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