Iowa Poll Shifts Dramatically as Kamala Harris Surpasses Trump in Key State
In an unexpected twist, a new Iowa Poll by the Des Moines Register and Mediacom shows Vice President Kamala Harris pulling ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa, a state he won decisively in the last two elections. With Election Day just around the corner, Harris leads Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. This surprising shift reflects a major swing for Democrats, given Iowa’s right-leaning trends in recent years and the solid support Trump had secured there in both 2016 and 2020.
Key to Harris’s new lead is the significant support she’s gained among Iowa’s women, particularly older and independent women. Poll data shows that women favor Harris by a substantial margin, and she’s making strong inroads with independent voters who previously supported Trump. Independent women, for example, now back Harris by a striking 28-point margin, underscoring a shift in attitudes that the pollster, J. Ann Selzer, notes as being largely unexpected. This level of support has enabled Harris to leapfrog Trump, who still retains strong backing from his core voter base: men, evangelical Christians, rural Iowans, and those without a college degree.
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The poll indicates that fewer Iowans remain undecided than in earlier surveys, signaling that voters have largely made up their minds about their choice. Ninety-one percent of likely Iowa voters say they are firmly committed to their candidate. This is up from 80% in September and suggests that, despite the narrowed lead, there is little room for major shifts in voter sentiment in the final days.
Despite Harris’s gains among certain demographics, Trump continues to hold a commanding lead among men, evangelical voters, and those in rural areas. His supporters cite the economy and inflation as their top concerns, viewing Trump’s past presidency as an era of economic stability. On the other hand, Harris’s supporters are motivated by issues such as the future of democracy and reproductive rights, with many believing that she offers a refreshing and stable contrast to Trump.
The Iowa Poll also reveals interesting trends within age groups. Harris has notable support from voters over 65, who traditionally have high turnout rates. This may boost her chances, as seniors are among the most dependable voters. Among younger voters under 35, Harris holds a slight edge over Trump, though their overall turnout is projected to be lower than in previous years.
Another noteworthy aspect of the poll is how past Trump voters have shifted. While Trump maintains a strong hold on Republican voters, Harris has managed to sway a small portion of Republicans and independents who previously supported Trump but have since distanced themselves. For some, this shift is a response to the events following the 2020 election and what they see as Trump’s divisive approach to politics. Some Iowans express that Harris represents a path to unity and stability, emphasizing her commitment to democratic principles and respect for the rule of law.
Ultimately, this Iowa Poll showcases a pivotal moment in a traditionally red state, reflecting complex shifts within Iowa’s electorate just days before Election Day. The question now remains whether these trends will hold and if Harris can indeed secure an unlikely victory in Iowa—an outcome that would send a clear message about shifting political landscapes across the country.
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