Iowa Poll Shows Kamala Harris Surging Ahead of Trump in Surprising Twist
In a major shift just days before the 2024 presidential election, a new Iowa Poll from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Iowa—a state Trump carried in both 2016 and 2020. The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters between October 28 and October 31, revealing Harris at 47% support compared to Trump’s 44%. This 3-point edge falls within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of error, making the race nearly deadlocked but still significant for Harris, especially given Iowa's recent Republican lean.
This latest poll represents a turnaround from previous months. Back in September, Trump held a narrow lead over Harris, with 47% support compared to her 43%. Before that, Trump’s numbers were even stronger, holding an 18-point advantage over Harris’ then-running mate, Joe Biden, as recently as June. Now, as Harris edges forward, many are analyzing the factors driving this shift.
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The poll highlights key demographic divides. Iowa’s women voters are favoring Harris by a significant margin, with 56% supporting her compared to 36% for Trump. Male voters, on the other hand, still largely support Trump, although his lead among men is narrower at 52% to Harris’ 38%. Independent voters in Iowa also seem to have shifted. While they previously leaned toward Trump, they now favor Harris by a 46% to 39% margin, a factor that could have a substantial impact as independents make up a critical voting bloc in the state. Additionally, the poll indicates that voters 65 and older are aligning more strongly with Harris than with Trump, at 55% to 36%. In contrast, younger voters under 35 are nearly split down the middle, with Harris holding a slim 46% to 44% lead.
Notably, 91% of Iowa’s likely voters report that they have firmly decided on their choice, with only 7% open to being persuaded. This high level of voter commitment at this stage implies that late-campaign efforts may have limited influence. Trump’s loss of his previous stronghold in Iowa raises questions about his broader appeal as Harris garners enough support to challenge him in what has traditionally been seen as solidly Republican territory.
This Iowa Poll may have a significant impact on campaign strategies over the final days before Election Day, as it shows a shift that no one had anticipated. With seven battleground states, including Iowa, likely to determine the election outcome, both campaigns are concentrating efforts on these decisive states. A victory in Iowa for Harris could signal a broader shift in voter sentiment, especially if traditionally Republican states begin showing unexpected support for the Democratic ticket.
As the race intensifies, the Harris campaign hopes that the Iowa Poll results represent a broader trend, while Trump’s team may need to reassess its approach to shore up support in states he previously counted on for a win.
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