When Will We Know Who Will Be the Next U.S. President? Insights on the 2024 Election
As Election Day 2024 approaches, there is growing speculation about when Americans will know who their next president will be. The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has become one of the most closely watched contests in recent history, and early polls show that the two candidates are virtually tied. This has raised an important question: will we know the winner on Election Night?
In recent elections, particularly since the 2000 contest, Americans have been accustomed to waiting long hours into the night, sometimes even days, for news outlets to declare the victor. However, given the current close nature of the race, it is extremely unlikely that we’ll know the winner immediately after the polls close on Election Day. The result could take days or even longer to determine.
The delay in calling the winner is largely due to the complexities of vote counting, particularly in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have absentee ballot processes that can stretch out for days before the final count is confirmed. Even in states where the result seems more straightforward, a large volume of mail-in ballots, especially in closely contested regions, can delay the outcome.
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News organizations play a pivotal role in calling the winner on Election Night, but their role is often misunderstood. While they do not determine the winner, they make projections based on vote counting trends as reported by local election offices. These calls are made only when there is 100% certainty that the trailing candidate can no longer catch up, which is why sometimes, results are delayed for several days. The Associated Press (AP), along with other major news outlets, uses sophisticated statistical models to predict the likely winner, relying on election data and trends as they unfold.
In the 2020 election, for example, it wasn’t until November 7 that Joe Biden was declared the winner, after Pennsylvania and Nevada’s results were finalized. Other states, such as Arizona and Georgia, took even longer to report their results due to recounts and legal challenges. The same could happen in 2024 if the margins remain razor-thin in battleground states.
But there’s a chance that this year’s results could be decided more quickly than in 2020. In states with a larger-than-usual margin of victory, results might be available more rapidly because there are fewer mail-in ballots to count. In states that have improved their mail-ballot counting systems since 2020, we may see quicker results. Still, if the race in key states comes down to a margin smaller than 0.5%, we could face delays, recounts, or legal disputes, which may prolong the process.
States like Arizona and Nevada, in particular, have long had slower vote-counting procedures, and in 2020, Arizona’s final tally wasn’t announced until November 12. Other states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can’t begin counting absentee ballots until Election Day itself, meaning that the final vote tallies won’t be known until the following days. Additionally, legal challenges related to late-arriving ballots or overseas ballots could also drag out the counting process.
For now, the best answer to the question of when we will know who won the 2024 U.S. presidential election is: it depends. If the results in key battleground states come in quickly, we may know within a few days. But if the margin remains close, especially in the swing states that decide the election, it could take much longer for all votes to be counted, and for the winner to be officially declared. The important takeaway is that, as in previous elections, patience will be required, and the final outcome may not be known until days after Election Day.
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