Dollar Price at a Crossroads – Will It Stabilize or Decline?
The foreign exchange market in Tehran has kicked off the week with uncertainty, as political and economic factors continue to shape the trajectory of the dollar. Investors and traders are closely monitoring the latest developments, wondering whether the price of the dollar will stabilize or take a downward turn.
Last week, the market witnessed significant fluctuations influenced by both domestic and international events. The potential reconsideration of FATF by Iran’s Expediency Council and reports suggesting a willingness from the U.S. to engage in dialogue with Iran brought some optimism. However, despite these factors, the dollar's value remained relatively steady, with minor fluctuations during Thursday’s trading.
In off-market trading, the dollar showed signs of positive momentum, breaking into a higher range within its trading corridor. Similarly, in Herat’s market, the dollar saw a notable gap increase, initially jumping by 600 tomans and maintaining its position throughout the day. By the end of trading, both Tehran and Herat's markets exhibited a tendency toward further volatility.
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Meanwhile, the Emirati dirham also experienced a surge, starting the day at 23,380 tomans and climbing to 23,580 tomans by the session’s end. Analysts suggest that as long as the current conditions persist, the dollar will likely remain within a limited fluctuation range. However, some experts warn that short-term market imbalances, driven by speculative demand and limited supply, could push the dollar higher.
The official exchange market saw both the dollar and euro rising. The Central Exchange of Iran priced the dollar at 69,007 tomans, while the euro reached 71,886 tomans. Interestingly, while the official exchange rates moved upward, the Emirati dirham's official price saw a slight decrease.
Shifting to the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin reached the $99,000 mark before facing selling pressure that drove its price down to $95,760. Experts highlight $95,000 as a key support level—if broken, Bitcoin could decline further to $92,800 or even $90,000. On the flip side, a break above $98,500 could lead to a rally beyond $100,000. Tether also showed fluctuations, moving between 86,550 and 87,800 tomans, with analysts marking 86,500 as a critical support level.
Looking ahead, two key scenarios could shape the dollar's movement. If the Central Bank successfully manages supply and curbs speculative activities, the market could stabilize. However, if inflationary expectations grow and new demand enters the market, the dollar could break resistance levels and move toward higher ranges.
Ultimately, the dollar’s future depends largely on diplomatic developments. Current market trends indicate that speculative traders are becoming more active, which could signal a price adjustment in the coming days. Whether the dollar stabilizes or embarks on another upward trajectory will depend on political signals and market sentiment in the days ahead.
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