Liberals Take the Lead Over Conservatives in Latest Polls
For the first time in years, the federal Liberal Party has edged ahead of the Conservatives in a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News. This shift marks a major turnaround in Canadian politics, as just weeks ago, the Conservatives held a commanding 26-point lead. Now, the Liberals stand at 38% support among decided voters, while the Conservatives have dropped to 36%.
This change in public opinion comes after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation, triggering a leadership race that has drawn new attention to the Liberal Party. At the same time, economic concerns, particularly looming tariffs from the United States, have become a major issue, pushing Canadians to rethink their political choices.
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Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker explains that this shift is happening primarily in central and eastern Canada. The Liberals have seen significant gains in Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives still hold strong support in the West.
One of the biggest surprises in this polling is how quickly the landscape has changed. In early February, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives had 41% support compared to the Liberals' 28%. That was already an improvement from January when the Liberals were at a near-historic low of just 20%. But now, the momentum appears to be on the Liberals' side.
A key factor in this shift is Donald Trump’s threat of heavy tariffs on Canadian exports. These economic risks have moved the focus away from past Liberal controversies and onto immediate concerns about how Canada will respond to U.S. policies. With Trump reaffirming that tariffs will take effect on March 4, there is growing urgency for Canada to have a government ready to respond.
Another striking result from the poll is that 86% of Canadians now want a federal election as soon as possible. Many voters feel that with major economic decisions looming, Canada needs a government with a strong mandate to navigate these challenges.
As the political landscape continues to shift, the Conservatives are now working to refine their message. Pierre Poilievre has been emphasizing a “Canada First” strategy to regain momentum. However, with the Liberal leadership race underway and the economy at the forefront of voters’ minds, the coming weeks will be critical in determining which party can solidify its support before the next election.
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