WA Election 2025: Labor Braces for a Swing as Liberals Eye Major Gains
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As Western Australians prepare to cast their votes, all eyes are on the scale of the swing against the Labor government. While Premier Roger Cook and his party are still projected to secure victory, the opposition Liberals and Nationals are poised to make significant gains in the state election.
Recent polls indicate a 12 to 13 percent swing towards the Liberals, potentially flipping up to 11 seats in their favor. This would be the largest swing against WA Labor in history, though it would still leave the party with one of its strongest performances. Premier Cook has acknowledged that some losses are inevitable, but the question remains: just how many seats will change hands?
Several key battlegrounds will determine the final outcome. Churchlands, a seat to watch, has been at the center of attention thanks to Basil Zempilas, whose high-profile but controversial campaign has energized voters. Meanwhile, in Nedlands and Carine, traditionally Liberal strongholds that fell to Labor in 2021, the opposition is expected to regain control. Liberal candidates Jonathan Huston and Liam Staltari are seen as rising stars within the party.
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Scarborough has also been a hotly contested electorate. Labor’s Stuart Aubrey is fighting to retain the seat, but Liberal contender Damien Kelly is mounting a strong challenge. Over in South Perth, the race is less predictable. Incumbent Labor MP Geoff Baker faces stiff competition from Liberal and South Perth Deputy Mayor Bronwyn Waugh.
Further afield, Riverton’s Labor MP Jagadish Krishnan, known as Dr. Jags, enjoys strong local support but faces pressure after recent controversies. Meanwhile, in Fremantle, a fierce battle is unfolding as Water Minister Simone McGurk fends off a challenge from the Greens and independent candidate Kate Hullett, both capitalizing on climate concerns.
Labor is also expected to struggle in regional areas. The government's unpopular gun laws and federal Labor’s live export ban have fueled discontent, particularly in Warren-Blackwood, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, and Albany. The Nationals’ leader Shane Love is locked in a tight contest in the newly created seat of Mid-West, facing former colleague Mem Beard, who has since joined the Liberals.
Despite the looming swing, Cook remains optimistic. He emphasizes that Labor’s economic leadership and manufacturing strategy will keep WA’s economy strong. His message to voters is clear: stability and experience matter. Meanwhile, Liberal leader Libby Mettam is urging voters to send a message that after eight years in government, it's time for a change.
With more than 450,000 early votes already cast, anticipation is building. Will Labor hold onto enough seats to maintain a comfortable majority, or will the opposition make deeper inroads than expected? The outcome will shape WA’s political landscape for years to come, making this election one to watch closely.
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