Can Walmart Keep Climbing? Here's Where the Stock Might Be in a Year
Alright, let’s talk Walmart stock. Over the past 12 months, Walmart has been on an absolute tear—its stock surged nearly 50%, leaving the broader S&P 500 way behind with just a 6% gain. That kind of performance definitely raises eyebrows. Investors are watching closely and wondering: can Walmart keep up this pace, or is the rally running out of steam?
The retail giant’s secret sauce? A mix of smart moves, resilience, and just sheer scale. Walmart’s been quietly evolving. It dodged the retail apocalypse that swallowed up many big names by modernizing its stores, embracing e-commerce, and turning its physical locations into mini-fulfillment centers. Add in price-matching with Amazon and you’ve got a company that knows how to compete in the 21st century.
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Its global reach doesn’t hurt either. Walmart now operates in 19 countries, with around 270 million customers visiting its stores and platforms each week. That’s wild. And it’s not stopping there—it recently dropped $2.3 billion to acquire Vizio, a move that’s about more than just selling TVs. Walmart is stepping into the connected TV advertising space, going toe-to-toe with Amazon’s Fire TV ecosystem. That kind of diversification helps Walmart stay relevant, even as consumer habits shift.
Financially, the company’s been solid. From 2015 to 2025, Walmart grew revenue at a steady 3% compound annual rate, with earnings per share climbing 4% over the same stretch. Plus, it’s a Dividend King—52 years of dividend hikes. That’s serious consistency.
Now, what about the next year? For fiscal 2026, Walmart expects sales to grow 3–4%, and earnings to climb between 0–4%. Not super explosive, but stable. And there are a few temporary speed bumps—like the Vizio integration, currency fluctuations, and the fact that 2025 had an extra leap day. But they’re not sweating tariffs, even though most of their products are sourced internationally. The plan? Lean into their size to negotiate better prices, stock up early, and pass some of the cost to consumers.
Analysts are a bit more bullish than Walmart’s own forecast. They’re projecting 5% EPS growth for 2026, and 12% for 2027. If that happens and Walmart’s valuation holds, the stock could climb another 9% to around $97. But there’s a flip side—if investor excitement cools and its price-to-earnings ratio drops back to historical norms, we could see the stock dip to $71, which would be about a 20% slide.
Bottom line? Walmart is still a well-run, battle-tested company. It’s a reliable name for the long haul, but right now it might be priced for perfection. If you’re thinking of buying in, maybe wait for a pullback. But if you already own it, this might just be one to hold and watch play out.
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