Canada’s Election Race Heats Up, But It’s the Final Hours That Matter Most
Let’s talk about what’s really going on with the 2025 federal election polls in Canada. Everyone loves to say “campaigns matter”—you hear it everywhere, from political experts to that one guy at your local Tim Hortons who thinks he’s got it all figured out. And sure, campaigns do matter—but not the way they used to. Not in today’s political landscape, where attention spans are short, voters are undecided until the very last moment, and momentum can shift overnight.
Take Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, for example. By traditional standards, they’ve been running a textbook campaign: clear messaging, no major missteps, and huge crowds that look more like rock concerts than town halls. It’s the kind of campaign that, even just a decade ago, would’ve had them cruising toward a majority government.
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Then there’s Liberal leader Mark Carney. The guy’s smart, well-spoken, and has international respect—but charisma on the campaign trail? Not so much. His approach has felt flat, like political beige. Polished, yes, but passionless. And yet, despite that contrast, the Liberals aren’t just holding their own—they’re actually ahead in the polls.
Recent numbers from Ipsos have shown the Liberals jumping to 46% at one point, before dipping slightly to 42%, still leading the Conservatives who’ve climbed up to 36%. That’s a real twist, considering the energy and effectiveness coming from Poilievre’s camp. So, what gives?
Here’s the truth: campaigns now are less about consistency over six weeks and more about capturing attention in the final 72 hours. Voters today are indecisive, fluid, and emotionally driven. They don’t commit early; they browse, compare, and make up their minds late—sometimes on Election Day itself. Up to 10% of voters decide in those final hours, which can completely change the outcome. And because of media blackout rules on polling data during Election Day, we don’t even see those late shifts in the numbers.
Debates? Sure, they still have the power to move the needle, but only if something dramatic happens. A knockout moment or a viral zinger might break through, but most debates just blend into the noise. Voters tune in while half-watching TikToks or scrolling Instagram.
So when we ask whether campaigns matter, the answer is yes—but only in a new, condensed, high-stakes kind of way. What matters now is the momentum that builds silently and suddenly, in casual conversations, in kitchen table debates, and in the gut feelings of undecided voters as they walk into the voting booth.
This is why both Carney and Poilievre still have a shot. Not because of months of planning, but because of what happens in that crucial final window. It’s less about platforms or policies, and more about timing, perception, and emotional resonance in the very last moments.
This race isn’t over—not even close. The real drama hasn’t even started yet.
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