Liberals Surge Ahead with Double-Digit Lead in Canada Election Poll
Hey everyone, let’s talk about something big going on in Canadian politics right now. The latest federal election poll has just dropped, and it's showing a major shift in momentum—one that could change the entire landscape of the race. According to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, the Liberal Party has officially taken a double-digit lead over the Conservatives as the campaign enters its third week. That’s right—a full 12-point difference.
Here’s how the numbers break down. If the election were held today, 46% of Canadians say they’d vote Liberal. That’s a two-point bump from last week. Meanwhile, support for the Conservatives has dropped to 34%, down four points. This shift is a clear sign that the Liberals have moved into majority territory, at least according to current voter intentions.
The NDP has seen a modest increase, now polling at 10%, while the Green Party sits at 3% and the Bloc Québécois is sitting strong in Quebec with 26%, which translates to about 6% nationally. There are still about 7% of voters who haven’t made up their minds yet, which means the race could tighten—but as of now, the Liberals are clearly out in front.
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What’s interesting is that this surge comes despite what Ipsos calls “soft” loyalty among Liberal voters. Even with that in mind, more Canadians—47%—now say the Liberals deserve another term. That’s up from just a week ago when a higher number of people were still undecided on that front.
Mark Carney, the Liberal leader and current caretaker prime minister, has had a busy few weeks responding to new U.S. tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. He’s suspended campaign events twice to deal with the economic fallout, held high-level meetings, and even managed to have a conversation with Trump, which reportedly led to a slight softening in tone from the U.S. side. That kind of leadership in a moment of economic tension may be helping his public image.
The poll shows 45% of voters think Carney is the best person to be prime minister, a one-point bump from last week. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, saw a dip to 32%. Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh of the NDP got a nice little boost, up to 12%.
Voter confidence is solidifying too—53% of Canadians say they’re absolutely certain about who they’re voting for, and nearly 70% say they’re hoping for a majority government so we don’t end up right back at the polls in a year or two. On top of that, a whopping 90% agree this election is critical for the future of the country.
One of the biggest issues on voters’ minds is Canada’s relationship with the U.S., especially with all the trade tension brewing. And on that front, the Liberals are clearly winning the trust game. Voters say the Liberals are the best party to handle U.S. relations, with a 40-point lead over the Conservatives on that particular issue.
So yeah, the numbers are moving, the pressure is building, and if things continue this way, the Liberals might just be on track for another term—with a solid mandate to back it up. We'll have to keep watching, because in politics, momentum is everything, and three weeks is still a long way to go.
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