Rockliff’s Leadership on the Brink as Tasmania Faces Political Shockwaves
Let me walk you through the political whirlwind currently shaking Tasmania — because yes, it’s happening again. Just when we thought the dust had finally settled in Tasmanian politics, the storm has come roaring back. Premier Jeremy Rockliff, once perceived as the steady hand steering the ship, is now facing a serious threat to his leadership. And it’s all unfolding with the kind of urgency and drama we thought we'd left in the past.
Only a month ago, it seemed Labor was committed to stability. Labor’s Shane Broad stood in Parliament and said clearly: Tasmania didn’t need another election. Business confidence was fragile, people were just starting to feel like things might run smoothly for a while. But fast forward to this week, and the tone has completely flipped.
Opposition Leader Dean Winter has now officially tabled a no-confidence motion against Rockliff. Why? He’s citing the government’s “reckless” handling of the budget, plans to privatise key state assets, and the controversial ferry replacement project. Winter says he can’t tolerate what’s happening under Rockliff’s leadership — and he’s determined to act. The no-confidence motion will hit the floor as soon as Winter secures support from at least eight crossbench MPs.
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And support is building. Within hours, three crucial crossbenchers signalled they were on board: Jacqui Lambie Network’s Andrew Jenner and independents Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston. That brings the spotlight directly onto the Greens. Their five votes will tip the balance — and as they meet to decide, the fate of Rockliff hangs in the air.
Here’s where things get really uncertain. If the motion passes, parliamentary convention says Rockliff should resign. But he’s hinted before that he might instead go to the governor and request an early election — a move that may or may not be granted. We’re deep in political territory where even the rules feel uncertain. If Rockliff resigns, who steps in? Can another Liberal command the confidence of the house? Or would Labor try to govern in minority, despite holding just ten seats?
What’s clear is that the government is in turmoil. Rockliff is under fire not just for the budget and privatisation plans, but also for his handling of the AFL stadium project in Hobart, where costs have blown out dramatically. The very stadium that was supposed to be a point of pride has become a political flashpoint.
Even more striking is the shift in Labor’s own approach. Just a few weeks ago, they were resisting calls for instability. Now, they’re the ones driving it — and doing so without full consultation with all crossbenchers, raising questions about their strategy and intentions.
At the end of the day, one thing is certain: the political equilibrium in Tasmania has shattered. Whether or not the no-confidence motion passes, the state is heading into another phase of deep political instability. And for Tasmanians, it means yet another round of uncertainty, just when it felt like the political ground had stopped shaking. The countdown is on, and all eyes are on what happens next.
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