Between Putin and Trump Germany’s Security Crossroads

Between Putin and Trump: Germany’s Security Crossroads

Germany today finds itself at a historic crossroads in terms of security and defense. A lecture by Carlo Masala, one of Germany’s leading defense experts, is being held at the Center for Military History and Social Sciences of the German Armed Forces in Potsdam. While the hall is already filled to capacity, the session is being livestreamed, drawing broad interest, because the issues under discussion are not only German but deeply European in scale.

To understand why this lecture matters so much, let’s step back for a moment. In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Germany into a radical change of course. For decades, Berlin had been cautious, often criticized for underinvesting in defense and hesitating to provide weapons in conflict zones. That caution was broken almost overnight. Defense spending was increased dramatically, and a special fund of €100 billion was set aside to modernize military capabilities. Germany even became the second-largest supporter of Ukraine—something unthinkable only a few years earlier. To underscore its commitment, Berlin stationed a permanent brigade in Lithuania, symbolizing a return to deterrence and collective defense in Eastern Europe.

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But while the Russian threat was forcing one major shift, a second turning point was unfolding in parallel. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025, Germany and Europe are once again confronted with uncertainty in their most important alliance: NATO. Trump’s skepticism about NATO’s value, his wavering support for Ukraine, and his readiness to hold direct talks with Russia—without including European partners—have all shaken the foundations of the postwar order. Since the 1950s, the US has been the central guarantor of German defense, particularly through its nuclear umbrella. Now, that foundation feels far less secure.

This raises critical questions. Can Europe rely on credible deterrence without American backing? Is an independent European defense structure realistic, or is it simply an illusion? For some, the idea of Europe taking full responsibility for its own security has long been seen as wishful thinking. Yet for others, it is being viewed as the only viable path forward if transatlantic trust continues to erode.

Carlo Masala, who teaches at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich and heads the Metis Institute for Strategy and Foresight, is tackling these very issues. Known for his sharp analyses and widely respected publications, Masala has been shaping public debate in Germany for years. His latest book, When Russia Wins , has even landed on the SPIEGEL bestseller list, reflecting how deeply these concerns resonate in society.

The fact that so many people are tuning in today reflects a broader reality: Europe is standing in the middle of two storms—on one side, the military aggression of Russia; on the other, the uncertain reliability of the United States under Trump. Germany, long accustomed to depending on allies, is being forced to rethink its place in global security. The decisions made now will determine whether Europe can build an independent shield of its own, or whether it will remain vulnerable to the shifting winds between Moscow and Washington.

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