Bolsonaro Faces Rising Pressure as Coup Trial Gains Momentum
The pressure on Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been building this week as his coup plot trial moves closer to a verdict. Out of the five Supreme Court justices assigned to the case, two have already voted to convict him. That means Bolsonaro is just one more guilty vote away from being officially convicted.
At the heart of this case are allegations that Bolsonaro and close allies tried to overturn the results of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election. After losing to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro is accused of orchestrating a plan to keep himself in power—by any means necessary. He has denied all the charges, but the first two justices to cast their votes painted a damning picture of his role.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes was the first to speak. He declared there was “no doubt” a coup attempt had taken place, and he described Bolsonaro as the leader of what he called a criminal organisation. According to Moraes, this group was not only responsible for spreading disinformation to undermine Brazil’s voting system, but also for drafting a plan—codenamed Operation Green and Yellow Dagger—that included assassinating Lula, his vice president, and Moraes himself. The document outlining this plan, he said, had been produced inside the presidential palace while Bolsonaro was still in office.
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The second justice, Flávio Dino, followed Moraes in finding Bolsonaro guilty on all charges. Dino suggested that some of the other defendants, many of whom were high-ranking military officials, bore different levels of responsibility, but he insisted that Bolsonaro’s guilt was especially serious.
If a third justice joins them, Bolsonaro could face more than 40 years in prison. The trial is continuing this week, and the next justice expected to cast a vote is Luiz Fux. His decision could seal Bolsonaro’s fate.
The stakes are enormous. Prosecutors argue that the coup effort culminated in the storming of Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court, and presidential palace on 8 January 2023, just days after Lula’s inauguration. More than 1,500 people were arrested in the chaos, but investigators claim it was not a spontaneous protest—it was the result of deliberate planning led by Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro himself has been absent from court. His lawyers say he has ongoing health issues from a stabbing during his 2018 campaign and that he has been following the trial from home under house arrest. He is currently banned from social media, so his voice has been notably quiet during this critical stage.
For his supporters, the trial is viewed as political persecution designed to block him from returning in the 2026 elections. For his critics, it is proof that Brazil’s democracy is holding firm against those who would undermine it. Either way, the nation remains deeply divided. And with the verdict expected soon, Brazil is bracing for what could be one of the most consequential rulings in its modern history.
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