France Braces for Political Turmoil as Bayrou Government Set to Fall
France is once again at the edge of political upheaval. On Monday, Prime Minister François Bayrou’s government was expected to collapse after just eight months in office, following a dramatic vote of confidence in the National Assembly. This would make Bayrou the fourth prime minister appointed by President Emmanuel Macron since 2022—and yet another casualty of a fractured political landscape.
At 3 p.m. local time, Bayrou stood at the podium in the Palais Bourbon to defend his government and tie its survival to a controversial austerity budget. The proposal had been framed as a necessary response to France’s spiraling debt, now at an alarming 114% of GDP. But the outcome of the confidence vote was never in doubt. Macron’s centrist coalition no longer holds a majority, and opposition parties, stretching from the far left to the far right, had already made it clear they would unite in rejection. By evening, Bayrou’s government was widely expected to be voted out.
The consequences for Macron are immense. Once again, he faces a dilemma: either attempt to negotiate with deeply divided parties to find a compromise prime minister, or dissolve the National Assembly and risk new elections. That second option is particularly risky. Macron’s popularity has plummeted, with about 77% of French citizens now disapproving of his leadership—the lowest rating since he first came to power in 2017. A recent poll suggests that if elections were held today, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its allies would dominate the first round with around 33% of the vote, ahead of both the left and Macron’s centrists.
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Bayrou himself did not shy away from acknowledging the storm. In his speech, he described the situation as an “ordeal of truth” that he had chosen to face. Warning of France’s mounting debt, he claimed the nation’s “vital prognosis” was at stake, threatening both independence and the social model. His words, though somber and urgent, were not enough to sway deputies who, as he put it, held the power to bring down the government—but not “to erase reality.”
The political paralysis is further complicated by looming unrest in the streets. A new protest movement, born online under the slogan “Bloquons tout” —“Let’s block everything”—has called for nationwide disruption starting Wednesday. Meanwhile, traditional unions have announced a strike for September 18, directly opposing Bayrou’s austerity budget. Ironically, that budget will likely never be implemented under his leadership, since his days as prime minister seem numbered.
For Macron, the road ahead is fraught. France’s three main political blocs—left, center, and far right—are locked in open hostility, with no realistic path to a durable majority. Analysts warn that even fresh elections would not solve the deadlock. Instead, the country risks being trapped in a cycle of instability, weighed down by both financial strain and political fragmentation.
In short, France now stands at a crossroads. With Bayrou’s government expected to fall, Macron’s presidency enters yet another critical test, one that could shape not only the remainder of his term but also the path leading to the 2027 presidential race.
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