AEMO Rewrites the Roadmap as Solar and Batteries Surge Ahead
Alright, let me walk you through what’s happening with Australia’s energy future, because the latest update from the Australian Energy Market Operator — or AEMO — really shifts the picture of how the country plans to reach its renewable energy goals.
So, AEMO has just released the draft of its new integrated system plan, which is basically the national blueprint for decarbonising the electricity grid. And what stands out right away is that the agency has dramatically scaled back how much new wind energy and high-voltage transmission it thinks Australia will need by 2030. This is a big pivot, especially because previous plans were heavily built around aggressive wind expansion and thousands of kilometres of new power lines.
The revision comes down to simple economics: the cost landscape has changed. Solar panels keep getting cheaper, batteries are becoming far more affordable — in some cases half the price they were just a couple years ago — and developers are responding fast. In fact, AEMO points out that in 2025, not one new wind farm actually began construction, while all new projects were either solar or battery storage. That shift makes the old forecasts for wind farms look unrealistic, so the operator has slashed its wind target from more than 42 gigawatts to 26 gigawatts by the end of the decade.
Also Read:Transmission plans have been trimmed too. AEMO had once expected the country would need 10,000 kilometres of new high-voltage lines by 2050. Now the estimate is closer to 6,000 kilometres. Part of that drop comes from completed projects, but a lot of it reflects delays, cost blowouts, and fierce local opposition — especially in places like Queensland, where some proposed lines were simply abandoned. Still, AEMO says controversial but critical projects such as VNI West and HumeLink will push ahead because they’re essential to keeping the system functioning.
Behind all this is an undeniable reality: Australia’s coal fleet is heading for retirement. Two-thirds of it is expected to close by 2035, and the rest is gone by 2049. That means renewable energy — firmed by batteries, hydro and some gas — has to take over the heavy lifting. And on that front, AEMO now expects solar and batteries to do far more than previously assumed. Utility-scale solar forecasts have jumped sharply, and big battery projects are surging, providing storage that can keep the lights on even when wind and solar output dips.
Households are set to play a huge role, too. By 2050, Australians are expected to have installed nearly 90 gigawatts of rooftop solar and millions of small batteries, along with overwhelmingly electric vehicles. When all this homegrown clean tech works together, it can act like a massive virtual power plant, reducing the need for even more large-scale infrastructure.
Gas will still be part of the mix, but mainly as a backup — running only occasionally, especially during winter or long renewable lulls. Even coal plants may adapt temporarily by ramping up and down more flexibly before they close for good.
Overall, AEMO frames this moment as a major turning point. The plan isn’t linear, it’s being constantly recalibrated, and if anything, the message is clear: the faster Australia builds out the clean energy system, the cheaper and more reliable the transition will be.
Read More:
0 Comments