Bitcoin Still Fits the Debasement Story, But Risk Is Being Trimmed
There’s been some interesting commentary circulating around Bitcoin lately, especially after macro strategist Luke Gromen shared a more cautious take. And while this isn’t a dramatic “Bitcoin is over” moment, it is a reminder that even long-term believers sometimes pull back when market signals start to shift.
Gromen has made it clear that the broader backdrop of currency debasement hasn’t changed. Debt-heavy governments are still expected to rely on inflation, money printing, and weaker currencies to manage their obligations. In that sense, the original thesis behind Bitcoin hasn’t been abandoned at all. What has changed, according to him, is how clearly Bitcoin is expressing that theme right now.
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Speaking on the RiskReversal podcast, Gromen said Bitcoin exposure is being trimmed because several warning signs have started to stack up. He even floated the idea that a move toward the $40,000 range in 2026 is possible. That comment caught attention, but it was framed more as a risk-management outcome than a bold price prediction.
One of the biggest red flags he pointed to was Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold. Instead of looking at dollar prices alone, Gromen watches Bitcoin priced in gold as a way to judge its strength as a store of value. That ratio has reportedly fallen to around 20 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, down sharply from roughly 40 ounces late last year. In his view, that kind of underperformance matters, especially when gold is doing a better job reflecting debasement pressures.
Technical damage was also highlighted. Bitcoin has slipped below key moving averages, which is often seen as a sign that trend momentum has weakened. These breaks don’t guarantee a crash, but they do suggest that upside conviction isn’t as strong as it once was.
Importantly, Gromen isn’t trying to call exact tops or bottoms. His approach is described as process-driven. Instead of bold forecasts, he focuses on a small set of recurring signals: Bitcoin versus gold, trend filters based on moving averages, and ETF flow data. When those inputs deteriorate, risk is reduced. When they improve, exposure can be increased again.
So the takeaway here isn’t panic, but perspective. The debasement story is still very much alive. It’s just being expressed more clearly through gold and certain equities right now, rather than Bitcoin. For some investors, that means staying patient, staying flexible, and accepting that even high-conviction assets go through phases where caution is warranted.
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