Giants-Raiders Showdown: Who Will Seize the No. 1 Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
This Sunday, a peculiar and highly anticipated game is set to take place in Las Vegas, as the 2-13 Las Vegas Raiders host the 2-13 New York Giants. It's not just any regular matchup—this game could very well decide who secures the coveted No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, a prize that neither team is eager to win, but both need in order to reshape their futures.
At the center of it all is the future of both teams. The Raiders are desperate for a new quarterback, and winning this game could significantly damage their chances of landing that top pick. The odds are currently close: the Raiders hold about a 35% chance of securing the No. 1 pick, while the Giants have a slightly slimmer chance at 33%. Right behind them are the Cleveland Browns with a 23% chance, and the New York Jets at 8%. The situation is delicate for all involved, and the outcomes of the final two weeks will have a huge impact on the draft order.
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For the Raiders, this game is about more than just pride; it's about their future. The loss of key players like tight end Brock Bowers, who was placed on injured reserve this week, and defensive end Maxx Crosby, who will miss the remainder of the season due to injury, has left the Raiders in a difficult position. With limited resources and the desperate need for a quarterback, the No. 1 pick is seen as a crucial opportunity to start fresh. If the Raiders lose to the Giants, their odds for the top pick jump to 64%, provided they also lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18.
For the Giants, the stakes are equally high. Their only hope for the No. 1 pick is to lose their next two games—this Sunday’s match against the Raiders and the Week 18 game against the Cowboys. If they lose both, the No. 1 pick is theirs. However, if they manage to win either of those games, their chances of securing the top spot become slim. If the Giants win on Sunday, their odds of landing the No. 1 pick drop to under 1%, according to simulations.
While both teams are hoping for a shot at a franchise-changing player, the Browns and Jets are still lurking, waiting for the losers of this matchup to trip up. The Browns, who are already sitting at 3-12, need to lose their remaining games to maintain their chances, and the Jets are in a similar position. However, their chances are slimmer because they lack the tiebreaker edge the Browns hold.
In the end, this game is more than just a typical Week 17 matchup. It represents a pivotal moment for two struggling teams, each hoping to land a player who can turn their fortunes around. Whoever wins—or loses—this game will have a huge influence on the race to the No. 1 pick.
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