Why Bitcoin’s Risk Might Not Be What It Seems
So right now, there’s a growing conversation around the actual risk level of Bitcoin, and it’s turning out to be far more nuanced than many people think. Recent analyses are suggesting that Bitcoin may actually be more resilient than the current market mood implies. One of the leading voices in this discussion is André Dragosch, the head of research at Bitwise Europe. He draws an interesting comparison between today’s economic environment and what we saw back in March 2020, when panic over the pandemic pushed Bitcoin below $5,000. According to him, the atmosphere we’re in today feels just as chaotic and overstressed, but not necessarily justified.
Dragosch explains that the market has been interpreting global economic risks in a way that might be too dramatic. He believes this misjudgment has created what he calls an “asymmetric opportunity” for medium-term investors — in other words, the downside may be overstated while the potential upside is quietly growing. In his view, positive global growth is already brewing beneath the surface, shaped largely by the long-lasting effects of monetary policies introduced after the pandemic recovery phase.
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There are several major factors that have shaped Bitcoin’s current price range. First, the U.S. has been in a long and aggressive monetary tightening cycle since 2022, which has naturally weighed on risk assets. Then, the collapse of FTX shattered institutional confidence across the crypto sector. And on top of all that, many investors are bracing for what they believe is a looming global economic slowdown — even if the data doesn’t fully support that level of concern.
Despite all this negativity, Dragosch is surprisingly optimistic. He believes that the delayed impact of earlier monetary adjustments could actually support a stronger global recovery heading into 2026, much like what happened after the post-COVID rebound. In short, the current fear may be obscuring real opportunities.
Of course, not everyone sees things the same way. Independent trader Alessio Rastani argues that Bitcoin’s latest drop shouldn’t automatically be read as the start of a deeper downturn. Historically, corrections like this have led to a rebound nearly three-quarters of the time. On the other hand, Tom Lee, the chairman of BitMine, takes an even more bullish stance. He expects Bitcoin to push past $100,000 by the end of the year, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and improved liquidity flowing back into the markets.
Right now, market sentiment is split down the middle. Some traders are cautious, some are confident, and many are simply waiting to see whether these next few months will push Bitcoin into a new bullish phase. With new tariffs on Chinese goods and a wave of recent liquidations adding to the uncertainty, it’s no wonder the community feels divided. But Dragosch’s perspective serves as a reminder that sometimes the biggest opportunities emerge exactly when the market is most unsure of itself.
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