As we hit the midpoint of August, the fantasy baseball landscape is heating up with playoffs on the horizon for many leagues. It's crucial to stay alert and keep optimizing your roster, especially as some competitors might be drifting towards football season. Today, let’s delve into the performances of three players who’ve recently caught our attention: Gavin Lux, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Spencer Schwellenbach. Are their recent hot streaks for real, or should we temper our expectations?
Gavin Lux (2B, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Gavin Lux, once a highly touted prospect, has struggled with injuries and inconsistent play since his debut in 2019. However, since the All-Star break, Lux has been on fire. Prior to the break, his numbers were lackluster (.213/.267/.295), but post-break, he's surged to an impressive .381/.452/.635. His .459 wOBA and 202 wRC+ are top-tier, suggesting a breakout. However, Lux's .512 BABIP in the second half, the second-highest in the league, raises concerns. Historically, a BABIP that high is unsustainable.
Further analysis shows Lux is making better swing decisions and tapping into more power, although his strikeout rate has increased from 20.6% to 27.4%. Despite these gains, Lux's hard-hit rate and barrel rate remain below average, which casts doubt on the sustainability of his recent success. His improved performance could be a result of increased power, but given his history of hot streaks followed by cold stretches, it's hard to predict long-term success.
Verdict: Not Legit. Lux is currently an intriguing option for fantasy managers, especially in need of middle infield help, but his track record suggests that this recent performance may not continue. Ride the wave if you're in need, but be prepared to pivot if he falters.
Tyler Fitzgerald (SS/OF, San Francisco Giants)
Tyler Fitzgerald has emerged as a surprising force since taking over as the Giants' starting shortstop on July 20th. Over this period, he’s posted a stellar .349/.411/.791 line with 10 home runs, 21 runs, 17 RBI, and five stolen bases. His .498 wOBA and 230 wRC+ are impressive, but his underlying stats reveal potential red flags.
Fitzgerald’s contact rates are concerning, with a 70.4% overall contact rate and a 77.2% contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone, both well below average. However, his expected stats, like xwOBA and xBA, suggest he could be due for some positive regression. His high BABIP and high strikeout rate are likely to regress, potentially lowering his average and on-base percentage.
Verdict: Not Legit. While Fitzgerald’s recent numbers are eye-catching, they’re largely driven by a high BABIP and an unsustainable strikeout rate. He remains a valuable stash in dynasty leagues, but his current performance might not hold up in the long run.
Spencer Schwellenbach (SP, Atlanta Braves)
Spencer Schwellenbach, stepping into a rotation void for the Braves, has impressed with a 3.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 70.2 innings. His recent performances, particularly his last four starts (3.12 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 0.88 WHIP with 36 strikeouts and only 2 walks), suggest he's hitting his stride.
Schwellenbach boasts a diverse arsenal, including a well-regarded four-seam fastball and slider, which are rated highly by Pitcher List’s PLV model. His ability to throw strikes and manage different pitches effectively is evident, making him a strong candidate for continued success.
Verdict: Legit. Schwellenbach’s strong recent performances, combined with his effective pitch mix and strike-throwing ability, suggest that he's a valuable asset down the stretch. If he’s available, he’s worth picking up for your fantasy rotation.
So, while Gavin Lux and Tyler Fitzgerald are riding impressive hot streaks, their underlying metrics suggest that their recent performances might not be sustainable. Spencer Schwellenbach, on the other hand, appears to be a solid option for the rest of the season. As always, keep a close eye on these players as the season progresses and adjust your strategies accordingly.
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