Dolphins' Playoff Hopes: Miami’s Road to the Postseason
As the Miami Dolphins enter the final stretch of the 2024 NFL season, their playoff chances hang by a thread. After a dismal 2-6 start to the season, Miami has turned things around with a 5-2 record in their last seven games, rekindling hope for a postseason appearance. However, their path is far from simple. While the Dolphins aren’t fully in control of their destiny, they still have a chance to clinch a wild-card spot if they can win out and receive help from other teams.
The Dolphins currently sit at 7-8, but according to The Athletic's playoff prediction model, they have only a 16% chance of making the playoffs. This is the second-lowest chance among the four AFC teams competing for the No. 7 seed. While DraftKings gives Miami a mere 5.88% chance with +1600 odds, there is still a slim window of opportunity for Mike McDaniel’s squad to slip into the postseason.
To make it, the Dolphins need three key things to happen: First, they must win their final two games against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets. These are winnable matchups, but both games are on the road in outdoor stadiums, which could pose challenges, particularly in inclement weather. Additionally, Miami will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland due to a hip injury, which means backup Tyler Huntley will need to step up and lead the team to victory.
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Secondly, the Denver Broncos, another contender for the AFC’s final wild-card spot, must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. The Broncos face a tough matchup against the Chiefs, who have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC. However, it's unclear whether Kansas City will play their starters, given that they have already secured their position. If the Chiefs rest their key players, the Broncos might find it easier to snag a win, which could impact Miami’s chances.
Finally, the Dolphins need the Indianapolis Colts to lose or tie at least one of their last two games. Fortunately for Miami, the Colts suffered a shocking loss to the New York Giants in Week 17, effectively removing them from contention and clearing a potential path for the Dolphins.
Looking at Miami's remaining schedule, they have the sixth-easiest path to finish the season, with games against two of the league's bottom teams: the 3-12 Browns and the 4-11 Jets. However, the road games and unpredictable weather conditions could work against them, especially without their starting quarterback.
In addition to these hurdles, Miami is also keeping an eye on Denver's situation. If the Broncos lose to Kansas City, Miami’s hopes of securing the seventh seed would increase significantly. Still, their fate could rest in the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, who could either help or hinder the Dolphins' playoff dreams.
If Miami does manage to get into the playoffs, they would likely face a daunting matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC. The Dolphins are 0-2 against the Bills this season, with both losses coming by a large margin, making a potential postseason matchup against Buffalo an uphill battle for Miami.
With the clock ticking on the 2024 season, Miami’s playoff hopes rely on a combination of their own success, Denver’s misfortune, and some help from other teams. The next two weeks will be critical in determining whether the Dolphins can continue their postseason streak or if their 2024 campaign will end in disappointment.
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