Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Pose Risk to Earth in 2032, Global Defence Measures Activated

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Pose Risk to Earth in 2032 Global Defence Measures Activated

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Pose Risk to Earth in 2032, Global Defence Measures Activated

A 100-meter-wide asteroid named 2024 YR4 has raised alarms across the globe after it was spotted late last year, triggering an unprecedented planetary defence response. Discovered on December 27, 2024, by an automated telescope in Chile, this space rock has captured the attention of both US and European space agencies, primarily because of its potential to collide with Earth in 2032.

Currently, the asteroid poses a relatively low risk, with a 1.3% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. While this means there's a nearly 99% probability that the asteroid will miss us, astronomers aren't taking any chances. Colin Snodgrass, a planetary astronomy professor at the University of Edinburgh, mentioned that it's likely to pass harmlessly, but further monitoring is essential to confirm its trajectory. Over time, as we track its orbit more closely, our predictions will become more accurate.

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The asteroid has now risen to the top of impact risk lists, receiving a score of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which assesses the risk of asteroid impacts. This scale ranges from zero (no risk) to 10 (impact is imminent and catastrophic). A score of three indicates that the asteroid warrants attention due to the 1% or greater chance of a localized impact over the next decade, which could cause significant damage to a region.

While an asteroid of this size—about 100 meters wide—couldn't cause a global extinction event like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, it could still inflict severe damage to a city or region. These types of asteroids impact Earth only once every few thousand years. Despite the relatively low odds, the detection of 2024 YR4 has prompted the activation of international response protocols.

Two United Nations-endorsed asteroid defense groups are now actively monitoring the asteroid: the International Asteroid Warning Network, which is working on more detailed observations, and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, which is considering possible intervention strategies. One potential solution is the deflection of the asteroid using a spacecraft, a technique successfully demonstrated in NASA’s recent Dart mission.

As of now, the asteroid is moving away from Earth, making it difficult for astronomers to calculate its trajectory with high certainty. Over the next few months, more observations will be made to refine predictions. If these do not eliminate the possibility of an impact in 2032, the asteroid will remain on the radar until it comes into view again in 2028.

As we face the unknown possibilities of space, this detection serves as a reminder of our vulnerability to these natural phenomena, yet also of our advancing technology that allows us to track and potentially mitigate such threats.

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