Asteroid 2024 YR4: Should We Worry About a Collision in 2032?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Should We Worry About a Collision in 2032

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Should We Worry About a Collision in 2032?

Hey everyone, let’s talk about something straight out of a sci-fi movie—an asteroid with a chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Sounds dramatic, right? Well, here’s what we know so far.

A newly discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4 , has caught the attention of NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Why? Because there’s a 1.2% chance it could impact Earth on December 22, 2032 . Now, before you start panicking, let’s put that into perspective. That means there’s a 98.8% chance it will safely pass us by. But still, even a small possibility of an impact is enough to get scientists closely tracking its movements.

So, how big is this thing? Estimates suggest it’s somewhere between 131 and 328 feet (40 to 100 meters) wide. To put that into context, that’s roughly the size of a large building. If it were to hit Earth, the impact could cause significant damage to a localized area—similar to past asteroid events like the Tunguska event in 1908, which flattened over 800 square miles of forest in Siberia.

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This asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024 , using the ATLAS telescope in Chile, and ever since, astronomers have been tracking it with powerful observatories, including the Very Large Telescope in Chile and the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico . Right now, it’s about 28 million miles away , but it’s moving fast—about 38,000 miles per hour (17 kilometers per second).

Now, what’s next? Well, scientists will continue gathering data until April 2025, when the asteroid will move too far away to track. If we still don’t have enough data to completely rule out an impact, it will remain on the official asteroid risk list until it becomes visible again in 2028.

If— and that’s a big if —2024 YR4 does remain a threat, what can we do? There are two major international groups , backed by the United Nations, that handle potential asteroid threats:

  1. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) , which focuses on tracking and assessing threats.
  2. The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) , which looks at possible ways to mitigate or deflect an asteroid if needed.

We’ve already seen NASA test asteroid deflection technology with the DART mission in 2022. That mission successfully altered the orbit of a small asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it. If necessary, similar techniques could be used in the future to nudge a dangerous asteroid away from Earth.

For now, the key message is stay informed, but don’t panic . The odds are heavily in our favor, and astronomers are on top of it. As technology improves, our ability to detect and handle asteroid threats only gets better. So, while 2024 YR4 is worth keeping an eye on, it’s far from a doomsday scenario .

I’ll keep you posted on any new updates—stay curious and keep looking up!

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