Blue Jays Betting on Francis to Tame the Orioles at Camden Yards
Alright, let’s talk about the Toronto Blue Jays and their clash against the Baltimore Orioles on April 12 — and more importantly, why Bowden Francis is the guy to keep your eyes on.
First off, this game was supposed to happen yesterday but got washed out by rain. No worries though, because both teams are sticking to their original game plan, meaning we still get to see Bowden Francis on the mound for the Jays and Tomoyuki Sugano for the O’s. And honestly, this extra day of rest might just play into the Jays’ favor.
Here’s what’s exciting: Bowden Francis has been absolutely lights out. Since late last season, he’s turned into one of the steadiest pitchers in the game. He wrapped up 2024 by allowing just 10 earned runs in his final 10 starts, and he’s started 2025 in the same groove — two runs allowed in each of his first two starts, with a total of 10 strikeouts. That’s the kind of consistency you love to see when you’re looking at betting angles.
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One of those dominant performances even came against the Orioles — 5.2 innings, three hits, only two earned runs. Pretty solid, right? What really stands out though is this number: 12 of his last 13 starts have gone under 2.5 earned runs. That’s a clear trend, not a fluke.
Now add to that Baltimore’s offense, which hasn’t exactly been on fire. They’re averaging just 2.3 runs per game when facing starting pitchers, and they’ve been held under 2.5 runs in eight of their 13 games so far. It’s hard not to love Francis in this spot — especially with the line sitting at Under 2.5 earned runs for him at around -120. If you’re betting, that’s worth a serious look.
And for those looking to get a little spicy with a same-game parlay — there’s a sharp combo out there: Francis Under 2.5 earned runs, the game total Under 8.5 runs, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to rack up Over 1.5 total bases. Guerrero has been raking lately, and Camden Yards has historically been kind to his bat. He’s batting .363 there with a 1.009 OPS, and he’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in five of his last seven games. This might be the value bet of the day.
So yeah, this Jays vs Orioles matchup might not look flashy on the surface, but it’s got all the ingredients for a sharp play — strong pitching, cold bats from Baltimore, and a Jays offense with just enough pop to pull ahead. First pitch is at 4:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards. If you’re backing the Blue Jays, today might be the day to ride the Under train with Bowden Francis as the conductor.
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