Mortgage Market Steadies as JOLTS Data Sends Mixed Signals
Hey everyone, let's take a moment to talk about what's happening in the mortgage world right now—because even when the news feels minor, it can have a real impact on rates and decisions we're making today.
So, earlier this week, all eyes were on the JOLTS report—that’s the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey—for some clues about where mortgage rates might head next. And while it didn’t exactly shake the market, it gave us a mixed bag of signals. The data showed job openings were higher than expected, which typically isn’t great news for interest rates. Why? Because more job openings can suggest a stronger economy, and that tends to push rates up as investors anticipate inflationary pressure and Fed responses.
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But here’s the twist—job quits dropped, which is actually positive for rates. Fewer quits mean workers are sticking with their jobs, signaling less wage pressure. That’s the kind of cooling in the labor market the Fed likes to see when it's trying to keep inflation in check. So, in essence, we got one piece of data pushing rates one way, and another pulling in the opposite direction. The result? Not much movement overall. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) took a hit right after the report but then rebounded, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending nearly flat on the day.
Now, if you're keeping an eye on rates—say for a refinance or home purchase—you’ll be interested to know that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped slightly to 6.87% , down 0.09%, while 15-year fixed rates also dropped to 6.12% . Those aren't dramatic shifts, but in a volatile market, even minor drops can present an opportunity.
The broader takeaway? This was one of those classic “wait and see” days. The JOLTS report didn’t move the needle much, but it did keep the conversation alive about how strong—or weak—the labor market really is. That, in turn, keeps the bond market—and mortgage rates—on their toes. Investors are already looking ahead to the next economic report, like the ISM Services data, for more guidance.
In the meantime, if you’re a homebuyer or homeowner weighing your options, this kind of relatively stable market might be a good moment to get a rate quote or lock something in. The bond market didn't cheer or panic today—and in these uncertain times, that kind of calm might just be the best news of all.
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