Gulf Coast on Alert as Tropical Disturbance Eyes Potential Development
If you're waking up along the Gulf Coast this week, you're going to want to keep an eye on the skies—and on the updates coming from the National Hurricane Center. A tropical disturbance is currently being monitored just off the Southeast coast of the U.S., and while it's far from a guaranteed storm, forecasters are watching it closely as it slowly inches toward the Gulf of America.
As of July 22, the National Hurricane Center highlighted a low-pressure area situated off the coast of northeast Florida. This system, while not currently strong, has the potential to evolve as it drifts west-southwest across Florida and into the Gulf. The chance of it developing into a tropical depression is relatively low—just 10% over the next seven days—but that doesn’t mean it won’t bring impacts.
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The key thing to watch here is the moisture. Even if this system doesn’t organize into a named storm, it’s still expected to drag in a surge of tropical moisture, increasing rain chances along the northern Gulf Coast by mid to late week. Places like Houston and Lake Charles could see several days of heavy showers and storms. The National Weather Service is already noting a spike in atmospheric moisture, with maximum levels expected by Wednesday afternoon, July 24.
Interestingly, this setup isn’t new for 2025. It echoes the recent formation of Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month, which developed in a similar region and ended up causing flash flooding and fatalities in parts of the Carolinas. Another disturbance followed shortly after, dumping rain across Florida and Louisiana. So, for coastal residents, this feels like a familiar and uneasy rhythm.
Forecasters point out that while this system might not amount to much in terms of wind strength, it’s part of a bigger picture. Ocean temperatures in the main development region of the Atlantic are warming at an alarming pace. This warming is driven by weaker trade winds and changes in atmospheric patterns like the Bermuda High and African monsoons. In short, these environmental signals are all pointing toward a ramp-up in tropical activity as the season progresses.
In South Mississippi, the expected effects will likely be more helpful than harmful. The influx of cloud cover and scattered afternoon storms may offer much-needed relief from the brutal heat, which has pushed heat index values into the triple digits. Temperatures may drop slightly, easing back into the 80s and 90s by Thursday and Friday.
So even though the odds of seeing a fully developed storm remain low, the atmosphere is primed, and this latest disturbance is a reminder that the 2025 hurricane season is far from over. Whether you’re in Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi, this is the time to stay weather-aware and prepared.
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