Marina Stakusic Faces Tough Test Against Jaqueline Cristian at Canadian Open
Hey, have you heard about Marina Stakusic’s upcoming match at the WTA Canadian Open? She’s set to take on Jaqueline Cristian in the Round of 128, and while it’s definitely a big moment for Stakusic, the odds aren’t exactly in her favor.
Cristian, who’s ranked No. 49 in the world, is coming into this match as a clear favorite. According to recent data and simulations—like, they ran 10,000 of them—Cristian is given about a 75–80% chance of winning this one. Pretty steep odds when you consider Stakusic is sitting at No. 142 in the rankings.
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Still, for Stakusic, just being in the main draw of the National Bank Open, one of Canada’s most prestigious tennis events, is a huge opportunity. This is a chance for her to go toe-to-toe with top-tier talent and, potentially, pull off a career-defining upset. I mean, Cristian might be the better player on paper, but upsets happen in tennis all the time. That’s the beauty of it.
Cristian, to her credit, has been fairly solid on hard courts over the past year. She's got a decent record and a pretty good track record in service and return games. She even made it to the semifinals at the UniCredit Iasi Open just earlier this month, though she did lose in straight sets to Irina-Camelia Begu.
As for Stakusic, it’s been a bit more of a mixed bag. Over the past 12 months, she’s had more losses than wins on hard courts. Her most recent tournament outing ended in the qualifying rounds of the French Open, where she was defeated pretty convincingly by Tamara Korpatsch. Still, she’s shown some spark in return games and has a decent break-point conversion rate, so she’s not completely out of the picture.
Betting-wise, Cristian is heavily favored. She’s listed at -400 on the moneyline, while Stakusic is a +280 underdog. Those odds reflect what the models are saying: Cristian has a strong chance to take the match, and even the first set, where she has a 70% win probability.
So, while most signs are pointing toward a win for Cristian, it’s still going to be interesting to see how Marina Stakusic handles the pressure, especially playing at home in Canada. This could be a learning moment—or who knows, maybe she surprises everyone. That’s what keeps us watching, right?
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