S&P 500 Could Log a Rare Third Year of 20% Gains
So, here's something pretty remarkable happening on Wall Street—especially if you’re keeping an eye on the broader U.S. stock market. One of the most prominent bullish voices out there, John Stoltzfus from Oppenheimer Asset Management, just made waves again by raising his year-end target for the S&P 500 index. He’s now predicting the index will hit 7,100 points by the end of 2025. That’s a big jump from his previous forecast of 5,950 and would mean an 11% rise from where it stood at the end of last week.
Now, what makes this so noteworthy isn’t just the new number—it’s the broader trend. If this projection proves correct, it would mark the third year in a row that the S&P 500 climbs more than 20%. And that’s a rare feat. We haven’t seen something like this since the late 1990s. Back then, it was the dot-com boom driving things. This time around, it’s a mix of resilient earnings, improving global trade conditions, and, perhaps most critically, fading policy uncertainty.
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Stoltzfus pointed out that the biggest drag on market outlooks recently—uncertainty around international trade deals—is finally lifting. Thanks to progress in negotiations between the U.S. and key global partners, that cloud is starting to clear. As a result, he’s feeling more confident in raising both his index target and his corporate earnings forecast. Specifically, he sees companies in the S&P 500 earning about $275 per share in 2025, which is actually about 3% higher than the current consensus from other analysts.
It’s worth mentioning that Stoltzfus had already forecasted 7,100 earlier this year. But in April, he scaled that back following a volatile market reaction to new tariff plans announced by former President Trump. That said, with trade tensions easing again, he’s returned to his original view.
This upgraded forecast not only sets him apart as the most bullish among strategists tracked by Bloomberg, but it also underscores just how optimistic some experts are about the U.S. economy’s ability to power through headwinds. If you’re an investor or just someone trying to understand the market momentum, this is a signal worth noting—especially when such sustained growth hasn’t been seen in over two decades.
So, in short, if the market keeps up this pace, we might just be witnessing a historic run.
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