Pies Lock in Top Four as Suns Face Finals Decider
What a dramatic end we’ve had to the AFL home-and-away season. Collingwood has just about locked in a top-four finish after edging out Melbourne in a thriller at the MCG on Friday night. That win alone was huge, but things swung even further in their favour when Gold Coast slipped up against Port Adelaide later in the evening. The Power’s upset over the Suns means Collingwood now sits safely inside the top four, and it would take a freakish set of results to push them out.
Right now, the Magpies sit on 64 points with a strong percentage of 122.4. The only realistic scenario where they could slip down is if Hawthorn or Brisbane produced a big result on Sunday. Even then, the Pies wouldn’t fall any lower than fourth. For the Giants to leapfrog them, they’d need to absolutely demolish St Kilda by a once-in-a-generation margin. So really, Craig McRae’s side can almost start preparing for a double chance in September.
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Gold Coast, however, finds itself in a completely different situation. The Suns’ dream of a first-ever finals appearance is alive, but only just. Their loss to Port Adelaide has left them hanging by a thread, and it now all comes down to a do-or-die clash against Essendon next Wednesday night. If they win, history will be made—the Suns will finally step into finals football. But if they lose, their percentage is too far behind, and they’ll be left watching from the sidelines again. It’s a massive moment for Damien Hardwick’s men.
The rest of the round is filled with mouth-watering matchups that could shape the ladder in unexpected ways. Adelaide, Geelong, Brisbane, and Hawthorn all have chances to claim the minor premiership, depending on how results fall across the weekend. For example, if Adelaide beats North Melbourne, they’ll sit on top unless Geelong edges past Richmond. If Geelong wins, they could steal top spot themselves. Meanwhile, the Brisbane versus Hawthorn clash at the Gabba will be crucial. A Lions victory would secure them a top-four place and possibly second spot, but if Hawthorn wins, the Hawks could catapult themselves into the top four instead.
Down the order, the battle for the last finals spots is fierce. Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs go head-to-head, with the winner guaranteed a place in September. The loser, however, will be sweating on Gold Coast’s fate against Essendon. Greater Western Sydney is also sitting in a relatively safe position, but there’s still a slim chance they could sneak into the top four if everything goes perfectly their way.
So as things stand, Collingwood has been all but gifted a top-four finish, while Gold Coast faces the biggest game in its short history. It’s the kind of final round footy fans dream of—every contest shaping the ladder, every result carrying huge consequences, and history waiting to be written.
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