Why Australia’s Migration Debate Misses the Bigger Picture
Migration has once again become a hot topic in Australia, especially with fresh figures on overseas arrivals and departures about to be released. The numbers are expected to spark outrage in some corners of the public, but the full story is far more complex than simple headlines about “too many migrants.”
It’s true that since late 2022, Australia has seen a sharp increase in net overseas migration. But what’s often forgotten is what happened before that surge. During the height of the pandemic, for about 18 months, more people left Australia than arrived. When the data is looked at over a five-year span, the net migration figures are actually not dramatically higher than the years leading up to Covid.
Also Read:Critics often point to migration as the reason housing has become unaffordable. But that argument doesn’t hold up. Property prices were already soaring even while borders were shut and no migrants were arriving. The housing crisis is not new—it has been building for decades. And when it comes to the labor market, the story is similar. Despite the migration uptick, unemployment has stayed low, just above 4%, with workforce participation at near-record highs. Employers still complain of skills shortages, especially in trades needed to build more homes, which ironically are the very jobs that would help address the housing crunch.
Migration, in fact, has brought enormous benefits to Australia, both economically and socially. But there is a fair question to be asked: where is the plan? The peak annual net migration rate of more than half a million in 2023 may indeed have been too high, but without a clear framework, it’s hard to know what “too high” really means.
The government has committed to a “principles-based” migration plan, but so far little has been delivered. Instead, announcements have been piecemeal, such as simply keeping the permanent migration cap at 185,000 without deeper explanation. Former immigration officials and economists argue that this lack of planning has left a vacuum—one easily filled by misinformation and extremist rhetoric.
Experts suggest that Australia could benefit from a more scientific approach, perhaps even setting a target range for net migration, much like the Reserve Bank does with inflation. That range could balance the demand for workers—whether in aged care, IT, or construction—with the country’s ability to provide housing and infrastructure. Institutions like Jobs and Skills Australia and the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council already produce the data needed to guide such decisions. What’s missing is the political will to put it together into a coherent, transparent policy.
Developing a real plan won’t be easy, and it will take courage. But doing so could cut through the noise and ensure migration continues to be one of Australia’s greatest strengths, rather than a flashpoint for division.
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