Texas on Upset Alert as Mississippi State Eyes Statement Win

Texas on Upset Alert as Mississippi State Eyes Statement Win

Texas on Upset Alert as Mississippi State Eyes Statement Win

College football in Week 9 brings a matchup that’s far more interesting than the rankings might suggest — No. 22 Texas heads to Starkville to face Mississippi State, and there’s a growing buzz that this could be the week the Bulldogs spring a surprise.

Analyst Josh Pate has officially placed Texas on his “upset alert” list, rating their risk at 8.5 out of 10 on his so-called “concern meter.” And honestly, you can see why. The Longhorns, despite being 5–2, haven’t exactly inspired much confidence lately. Their narrow 16–13 overtime win against Kentucky was more of a survival act than a statement, as they managed only 179 total yards — their lowest offensive output since 2015. For a program built on explosive talent and high expectations, that’s a worrying trend.

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Texas’ offensive rhythm has been missing for weeks now. Quarterback Arch Manning has been under pressure to find consistency, throwing for 1,449 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions so far. The run game hasn’t been much help either, leaving the defense to shoulder most of the burden. Statistically, that defense has been elite — third in the country, allowing just 11.3 points per game. But as Pate pointed out, “Can you really ride a defense all year long? Is there that one week where it just has a hiccup?” Mississippi State hopes to be that hiccup.

Under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby, the Bulldogs have been quietly building momentum. Sitting at 4–3, they’ve been in close battles with top teams like Tennessee and Florida, losing by razor-thin margins. Their offense, led by quarterback Blake Shapen, has shown a dangerous balance — averaging nearly 32 points and 406 yards per game. Shapen’s connection with receiver Brenen Thompson has especially stood out, and their ability to stretch the field could seriously test Texas’ secondary, especially with safety Michael Taaffe sidelined.

What makes this matchup even more intriguing is the setting. Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville is one of the loudest in college football, thanks to those iconic cowbells that echo through every snap. The atmosphere alone can rattle even seasoned quarterbacks, and for a Texas team that’s struggled on the road — this being their second straight away game in the SEC — composure will be everything.

Most analysts agree that if Mississippi State can hit a couple of big plays early and protect the football, the Longhorns could be in real danger. Vegas odds may favor Texas, but the betting trends tell another story — the Bulldogs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.

So, as kickoff approaches, all eyes turn to Starkville. Will Texas rediscover its offensive spark and prove its ranking right, or will the Bulldogs’ home-field chaos and hungry energy turn Week 9 into one of the season’s biggest upsets? One thing’s certain — this isn’t just another Saturday in the SEC.

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