Bihar Election 2025: NDA Secures Strong Victory, Mahagathbandhan Falls Behind
The 2025 Bihar Assembly election results are beginning to paint a clear picture, and the early trends are pointing strongly in favor of the ruling National Democratic Alliance, or NDA. Based on the latest trends available for 240 of the 243 seats, it is evident that the NDA has managed to retain much of the support it enjoyed during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while the Mahagathbandhan has seen its vote share dip by around three percentage points.
Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, is currently leading in 82 seats with a 22.4% vote share. The Janata Dal (United), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, has secured leads in 75 seats with 18.5% of votes, while the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is ahead in 22 constituencies with a 5.7% share. Altogether, the NDA’s combined vote share stands at 48.3%, almost identical to its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This indicates that the ruling coalition’s voter base has remained largely intact over the past year.
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On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and other smaller allies, is struggling to match the NDA’s momentum. The RJD is leading in 36 seats with a 23% vote share, slightly higher than its 22.6% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while the Congress has seen a decline from 9.4% to 7.9%. Overall, the Mahagathbandhan’s combined vote share has fallen to 36.9%. Parties like the Jan Suraaj Party and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen have chipped away at the anti-incumbency vote, contributing to the NDA’s advantage.
One of the most striking trends this year is the NDA’s performance in Muslim-majority constituencies. The alliance appears on track to secure at least 16 such seats, a dramatic shift from past elections where these constituencies historically leaned towards secular alliances like the Mahagathbandhan. The JD(U) seems to have benefited the most within the NDA, gaining around eight seats compared to 2020, while the LJP (RV) has made significant inroads, leading in six seats with notable Muslim populations. This split in the anti-incumbency vote has clearly worked to the NDA’s advantage.
Meanwhile, the Jan Suraaj Party, which entered the elections with high expectations, has so far failed to make a noticeable impact, with its vote share remaining marginal. Counting operations are being closely monitored by 243 Returning Officers and an equal number of counting observers, with more than 18,000 counting agents present across the state.
Over seven crore voters participated in the election, casting their ballots over two phases on November 6 and 11. With the NDA having crossed the majority mark early in the counting process, it seems that the electorate of Bihar has chosen continuity and stability, signaling another decisive victory for the ruling coalition. The final tally will be awaited, but the trends so far suggest that the NDA is set to maintain its stronghold in the state.
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