Titans Look to Shock Texans Despite Struggles
This Sunday, an intriguing matchup is set to unfold as the Tennessee Titans host the Houston Texans, and it’s shaping up to be one of those games that could surprise a lot of people. The Texans, currently sitting at 4-5, are coming off a thrilling comeback victory over the Jaguars, winning 36-29 as underdogs in Jacksonville. Their confidence is high, and the public seems to be firmly backing them, with 73% of spread bets at DraftKings supporting Houston. Yet, the line has moved from -7.5 to -5.5, signaling that the professional sharp money might have a different opinion.
The Titans, on the other hand, are struggling through a rough season at 1-8. They just lost to the Chargers 27-20, but even in defeat, they covered the spread as 10-point underdogs. Experts believe there’s value in backing the Titans, especially with the points, and this is reflected in the sharp money movement. At DraftKings, the Titans may only have 27% of the bets, but those bets account for 37% of the dollars. Over at Circa, Tennessee is getting 51% of the bets and 58% of the dollars. This “low bets, high dollars” split suggests that professional bettors are quietly betting on the Titans to cover.
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Several factors favor Tennessee in this matchup. The Titans have had a bye week, giving them a rest advantage over a Texans team that just played a high-energy, emotional game in Jacksonville. Historically, teams that are dogs off a loss facing opponents off a win have performed well against the spread, hitting 58% this season with an 11% return on investment. Divisional familiarity also plays a role. Since 2019, divisional underdogs have gone 53-47 against the spread, and road divisional dogs fare even better, covering 55% of the time.
Weather conditions and scoring trends also lean in favor of a tighter game. The forecast predicts clear skies with temperatures in the low 60s and 10 MPH winds. The under has been heavily targeted by pros, with DraftKings showing 43% of bets but a whopping 70% of dollars on the under, suggesting expectations for a lower-scoring contest. Historically, outdoor divisional unders have performed well, with positive returns for bettors over multiple seasons.
In short, while Houston may seem like the obvious choice based on recent form and public opinion, savvy bettors are seeing value in Tennessee, not just for the spread but also in a lower-scoring game. The Titans may be struggling in the standings, but this combination of rest, divisional familiarity, and sharp-money backing makes them a team to watch carefully as Sunday’s game unfolds. It’s a classic setup where the “ugly” home dog might just surprise everyone.
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