Melbourne Shivers Through a Rarely Cold Christmas as Summer Waits Its Turn
If you’re waking up in Melbourne this Christmas and wondering why it feels more like late winter than the middle of summer, you’re definitely not imagining it. According to forecasts backed by Bureau of Meteorology radar observations, Christmas Day 2025 is shaping up to be one of the coldest the city has experienced in decades. A top of just 17 degrees Celsius is expected, putting this Christmas on track to be the fourth-coldest December 25 since records began way back in 1855.
For a city that usually debates between poolside barbecues and beach trips on Christmas Day, this year’s conditions are forcing a wardrobe rethink. Breezy winds, thick cloud cover, and even the chance of a light shower mean jumpers and jackets are likely to replace singlets and thongs. Compared to last Christmas, when temperatures soared to a summery 33 degrees, the contrast couldn’t be more dramatic.
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While it might feel extreme, Melbourne’s Christmas weather has always been unpredictable. Data shows the long-term average Christmas Day temperature sits around 25.6 degrees, but that “average” is rarely felt. Some years swing hot, others turn cool, and occasionally, like this year, winter-like air manages to muscle its way in. The coldest Christmas on record was in 2006, when the city barely reached 15.4 degrees, complete with hail and alpine snowfall across parts of Victoria.
So what’s behind this chilly start to summer? It’s largely being driven by repeated cold fronts pushing up from the Southern Ocean. The usual belt of high pressure that keeps southern Australia warm at this time of year has been sitting further north than normal. As a result, colder polar air has been allowed to surge into Victoria again and again. Colder-than-average sea surface temperatures south of the continent have added extra bite to those south-westerly winds, a pattern clearly tracked on BOM radar systems.
Despite the cold snap, it’s not all doom and gloom. Across Victoria, Christmas Day is expected to stay mostly dry. Southern regions will struggle to climb above the high teens, but further north, especially along the Murray River, temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20s under sunnier skies.
And importantly, this chill won’t last forever. While Boxing Day will remain cool, conditions are expected to warm up quickly after that. Looking ahead to early January, the Bureau of Meteorology suggests a strong chance of above-average temperatures and drier weather. So for now, Melburnians may need to endure a Christmas spent indoors with hot food and warm drinks—but the pool noodles and floaties won’t be staying in storage for long.
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