BOM Summer Forecast Predicts Warmer, Wetter Conditions for Australia, with Increased Fire Risk

BOM Summer Forecast Predicts Warmer Wetter Conditions for Australia with Increased Fire Risk

BOM Summer Forecast Predicts Warmer, Wetter Conditions for Australia, with Increased Fire Risk

As the summer season approaches, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued its long-range weather outlook, painting a picture of a season marked by higher-than-usual rainfall and warmer-than-normal temperatures. According to the BOM's forecast, Australia is set to experience a wetter, warmer summer, influenced by unusually high ocean temperatures around the country, particularly in the northern and north-western regions.

The ongoing warming of ocean waters has been a key factor in driving the forecast. In particular, the waters off the north-west coast of Western Australia are currently 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer than usual, creating a scenario ripe for increased evaporation, which leads to higher rainfall. Climate experts say that warmer oceans "dope up" weather systems, intensifying storms and rain, especially in the tropics. As a result, the Bureau is predicting a wetter-than-usual start to the season, with December expected to see above-average rainfall, particularly across the northern and eastern parts of the country.

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Despite the promising rainfall, there’s also a concern about the overall balance. The increased moisture in the atmosphere may lead to more cloud cover, which could dampen daytime temperatures, particularly in southern Australia. However, the forecast suggests that night-time temperatures will be significantly warmer across much of the country. Many areas are likely to experience "unusually warm" nights, which could lead to uncomfortable, sticky conditions, especially in urban centers. This pattern is expected to be more pronounced than the daytime heat, with night-time temperatures predicted to be in the top 20% of historical records.

Looking further into the summer, the BOM outlook indicates a neutral rainfall outlook for most of Australia beyond December, meaning the high rainfall seen in early summer will gradually ease. However, this doesn't mean the risk of extreme weather is over. In fact, parts of Australia, particularly in the south, are also facing an increased risk of bushfires. This is due to a dry winter and spring, which has left soils in many areas parched and vulnerable to fire. The National Council for Fire and Emergency Services has already warned that regions like Victoria, South Australia, and parts of New South Wales face higher-than-usual fire risks.

In addition to heat and fire, severe weather and even tropical cyclones are on the radar, particularly for the east coast and parts of the north-west. The forecast suggests a greater chance of severe cyclones and floods, particularly in December. However, as with all long-range forecasts, there is still uncertainty, and the BOM cautions that specific day-to-day weather conditions, such as for Christmas, are not guaranteed. The Bureau's experts advise that Australians prepare for a range of weather extremes, from storms to heatwaves, as they brace for a season of high risk and unpredictable conditions.

As this high-risk summer season unfolds, it's essential for Australians to stay informed, take precautions, and prepare for extreme weather events. Whether it’s floods, fires, or heatwaves, being ready for anything will be key to staying safe through what is shaping up to be a very unusual summer.

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