NDIS shifts focus with $2b "Thriving Kids" program
The National Disability Insurance Scheme, or NDIS, has been one of the most significant reforms in Australia’s social policy. It has changed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people with disability, but now, serious questions are being raised about its future direction and financial sustainability. This week, Disability Minister Mark Butler took to the National Press Club to outline major changes, and at the centre of it all is a brand-new program called Thriving Kids .
So, what’s happening? The federal government has committed $2 billion to this new initiative, designed to support children with mild to moderate developmental delays and autism outside the NDIS. The program is set to begin rolling out in July next year and be fully operational by 2027. Importantly, this does not mean children who are already on the NDIS will be removed. Current participants will remain, but future access and eligibility rules will shift as Thriving Kids becomes established.
Also Read:Mr Butler was very clear: the NDIS was built for Australians with profound and permanent disability, but what has happened over time is that tens of thousands of young children have entered the scheme as the only available option. With state-based supports shrinking, families were left with nowhere else to turn. In fact, figures show that about 11 percent of all six-year-olds in Australia are now on the NDIS, and among boys that number climbs to nearly one in six. Autism alone accounts for 40 percent of all NDIS participants.
The minister said this level of demand was never the intention of the scheme, and while families were acting out of desperation, the result has placed huge pressure on the budget. The NDIS currently costs $48 billion a year, already more expensive than Medicare, and is on track to outstrip defence spending in the near future. Without reform, projections show the scheme could cost more than $100 billion annually within the next decade.
That’s why the government is pushing for a growth target. The current aim is to keep spending growth at 8 percent per year, but Butler suggested this should fall to 5 or 6 percent—more in line with aged care and Medicare. Reforms on the table include stronger fraud prevention, tighter pricing rules, and ensuring supports are backed by evidence.
Thriving Kids is being framed not as a replacement for the NDIS, but as part of a broader system of “foundational supports.” These are services meant to help children at earlier stages, often delivered through schools, childcare, or community health programs. The goal is early intervention, giving families the help they need without forcing them into a system designed for lifelong disability.
In short, the government is at a crossroads. The NDIS remains vital for people with significant disability, but its long-term survival depends on recalibrating who it is meant to serve. Thriving Kids represents a shift back toward that original intent, while trying to fill the gap that parents of children with developmental delays have been struggling with for years. Whether this new program can deliver on its promise will be closely watched, not just by families, but by the entire disability community.
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