Sydney and Melbourne Heat Up as Spring Shatters Records
This week has felt more like midsummer than the start of spring, with Sydney and Melbourne both experiencing temperatures far hotter than what’s usually expected in September. Sydney reached a high of 29 degrees on Tuesday, while Melbourne hit 24 degrees on Monday. That might not sound extreme for later in the season, but for September it’s about 8 to 10 degrees above the long-term average. Meteorologists have pointed out that these spikes are not just random weather quirks—they’re part of a broader trend where spring and summer are warming faster in south-eastern Australia than the rest of the year.
What’s especially worrying is that this is happening against the backdrop of a major climate risk assessment, which was released just this week. The report made it clear that relying on old weather records to predict the future is no longer reliable. The climate is shifting too quickly. This is pushing governments into action, with the Albanese government preparing to announce a new 2035 emissions target, which will be taken to the United Nations climate conference in Brazil later this year. On the other side of politics, though, there’s still division, with some Coalition MPs threatening to resist the net zero commitments already on the table.
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The science community is urging stronger action. The Australian Academy of Science has argued that Australia, given its high per capita emissions compared to other developed nations, must reach net zero by 2035—not by 2050 as currently planned. They recommend a 74 percent cut in emissions below 2005 levels by the end of this decade.
Meanwhile, the data from the Bureau of Meteorology paints a clear picture: September has become the start of the warm season in the south-east, and the months from September to January are heating up faster than any other time of the year. Since 2000, the average annual temperature in this region has been 0.75 degrees warmer than the long-term baseline. Looking closer, September is now about 0.9 degrees hotter than it was between 1961 and 1990. But the real standout is January, which has warmed by nearly 1.5 degrees compared to the same historical period.
These shifts bring consequences beyond just uncomfortable heat. Last year’s State of the Climate report highlighted that fire seasons are beginning earlier, and dangerous fire weather is becoming more common, particularly in spring and summer. Snow cover at lower altitudes is also shrinking faster, especially in spring months. Sydney’s hottest September day on record was just two years ago, in 2023, when it reached 34.6 degrees. Melbourne’s record of 31.4 degrees, set in 1928, still stands, but the city experienced its hottest September overall in 2023.
Climatologists like Qian Zhou from the Bureau of Meteorology explain that warmer air masses are being pulled southward by changing wind patterns, driven by cold fronts in the Southern Ocean. This week, those winds lifted temperatures across NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, and South Australia to as much as 12 degrees above average.
And the season isn’t done yet. With the Indian Ocean Dipole now in its negative phase and a likely La Niña developing, more rain is expected through spring. But with warmer air, hotter Septembers, and fire seasons creeping earlier each year, the message from the weather is clear: climate change is no longer something to plan for in the future—it’s being felt right now.
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