Oil Prices Set to Dip in 2026 as Permian Basin Powers Up
The oil world is gearing up for a major shift — and much of it revolves around the Permian Basin, America’s energy powerhouse. Top oil executives are now expecting prices to fall in 2026 as production surges across this massive oil-rich region in Texas and New Mexico.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, speaking with Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo, said the industry is preparing for what could be a “low point” in oil prices next year. He explained that as the Permian ramps up output and fresh supply returns to the market, prices are expected to ease temporarily before finding balance again. “We’re prepared for prices in 2026 to be lower than they were in 2025,” he said. “Once the market rebalances, prices should stabilize slightly higher afterward.”
This outlook reflects a broader story of resilience and revival in America’s oil sector. The Permian Basin, long considered the heart of U.S. energy independence, is roaring back to life. According to Wirth, U.S. production of oil and gas has now surpassed that of Saudi Arabia and Russia combined — a remarkable turnaround from two decades ago when the U.S. trailed far behind.
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Diamondback Energy CEO Kaes Van’t Hof echoed that sentiment, noting that today’s $57-a-barrel oil isn’t a reason to celebrate but a call to innovate. “We’re going to find ways to reduce costs, cut emissions, and make our break-evens lower so we can keep moving forward,” he said.
Currently, the Permian Basin accounts for around 40% of U.S. oil production, and experts believe that number could reach 70% by 2040. The region produces over six million barrels a day — enough to rank it as the world’s third-largest oil producer if it were its own country.
Beyond economics, leaders like Chevron’s Kim McHugh emphasize that the industry’s growth is about more than profits. “Energy security and national security are linked,” she said, pointing out that America’s ability to rely on its own resources shields it from volatile global markets and hostile oil producers.
This resurgence also ties closely to political shifts. Supporters of former President Donald Trump’s energy policies credit his administration for boosting domestic production and restoring confidence in U.S. oil independence. Congressman August Pfluger, representing the Permian Basin region, even described it as the “crown jewel” of American energy, despite challenges faced under previous regulations.
As the pumps in Texas and New Mexico roar back to life, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year — one marked by short-term price drops but long-term strength. The message from America’s oil heartland is clear: the Permian Basin is not slowing down anytime soon.
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