AI “Ghost GDP” Sparks Panic as Wall Street Questions the Future of Work
Markets are shaking as a thought experiment from Citrini Research is rattling investors worldwide. The report, published on Substack by finance analyst James Van Geelen, imagines a near-future scenario called the “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” where artificial intelligence radically reshapes the economy. While framed as fiction, Wall Street is treating it like a warning bell.
In this scenario, AI adoption accelerates so quickly that white-collar layoffs hit double digits by mid-2028. Productivity soars, but the gains are largely invisible—what Citrini calls “ghost GDP.” Companies produce massive outputs through AI, but this output never circulates through the real economy. Consumers, suddenly without jobs, stop spending, creating a negative feedback loop where businesses adopt even more AI to cut costs, which drives further layoffs. The result is a hollowed-out consumer base, a potential financial crisis and unprecedented disruption across sectors.
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The thought experiment extends beyond traditional software companies. Delivery platforms, financial services and even credit card networks could be destabilized as AI agents automate tasks, eliminate transaction fees and create a frictionless economy. Services that once relied on human expertise—travel booking, tax preparation, financial advice—could face steep competition from AI-driven solutions that remove the human element entirely. In Citrini’s scenario, unemployment spikes to over 10% and the S&P 500 suffers a 38% peak-to-trough drop, all driven by the rapid displacement of human intelligence.
Investors have already responded, with software stocks, delivery apps and payments companies seeing sharp declines. The panic is fueled in part by new AI tools like Anthropic’s Claude Cowork, which promise to handle complex tasks that once required teams of specialists. Some analysts warn this could be a canary in the coal mine for the broader labor market, signaling how fast the traditional economic model may unravel if AI continues to advance unchecked.
Yet experts caution against overreaction. Historical patterns suggest that productivity gains often create new opportunities and humans adapt by shifting into roles that require context, creativity and trust—qualities AI cannot fully replicate. While certain jobs may disappear, others are likely to emerge and the notion of a permanent collapse of consumer demand may be overstated. Even Citrini notes this is a scenario, not a prediction, designed to highlight potential risks as AI reshapes work and commerce.
What this means for you is simple: the economic landscape is entering uncharted territory. AI is no longer a background tool—it’s becoming a force capable of transforming industries, markets and careers. Watching these developments closely, understanding the implications for your work and staying informed about AI’s trajectory will be crucial as the future unfolds. Stay with us for ongoing analysis and updates on how AI is shaping the global economy.
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