Coinbase Stock Opportunity: 40% Discount with Built-In Safety?
Alright, let’s talk about something that’s got the investing world buzzing—Coinbase stock. If you’ve been watching the crypto space lately, you’ve probably noticed the impressive momentum behind Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN). Over just the past week, it’s surged nearly 30%, largely thanks to the Senate passing the stablecoin regulation bill. That’s a big deal because stablecoins are Coinbase’s second-largest revenue driver. And let’s not forget—it’s already up around 60% since Trump’s return to the presidency. So yeah, this stock’s been riding high.
But maybe you’re sitting there thinking, “Did I miss the boat?” Not necessarily. There’s a smart, strategic move still on the table that could let you tap into Coinbase’s potential—with a built-in margin of safety of 40%. Imagine buying this high-flying stock not at $310, where it trades now, but at around $180 or even less. That’s not just wishful thinking; it’s an actual trade setup you can use today.
Here’s how it works: sell a long-dated put option expiring in June 2026, with a strike price of $180. That one move earns you around $1,515 per contract. It’s basically a promise to buy 100 shares if COIN falls below $180 by that date. If it doesn’t, you keep the full premium—an 8.5% return on the $18,000 you’d have set aside. And if you stash that cash in a money market account earning 4% annually, you’re looking at a total yield north of 12%.
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Now, let’s say the stock does fall below $180. Well, you’d end up owning COIN at a net price of about $164.85 per share after the premium. That’s a 47% discount from where it trades today. So even in the “worst-case” scenario, you own a solid crypto stock at a deep discount.
Coinbase isn’t some speculative name either. It’s the largest publicly traded crypto exchange in the U.S., with over $8 billion in cash and a net profit of $2.6 billion last year. Margins? A rock-solid 40%. And yes, while it trades at about 39 times FY’26 earnings estimates, that’s par for the course for high-growth companies in innovative sectors.
If you’re comfortable with the crypto space and believe in long-term innovation, this is the kind of setup that makes sense. It’s not just about chasing gains—it’s about positioning yourself with downside protection and strong upside if COIN continues to expand.
This kind of asymmetric trade—where your risk is defined and the upside is compelling—is exactly the type of strategy favored by the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which has beaten the S&P 500 consistently with lower volatility. It’s all about margin of safety, value, and playing the long game.
Bottom line: whether you end up owning COIN at a steep discount or simply pocketing a 12% return on idle cash, this is a win-win trade.
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