Severe Storm Threat Returns to the Prairies with Supercell Potential
A volatile weather setup is unfolding across the Prairies this week, and conditions are shaping up to bring another round of severe thunderstorms. Forecasters say that Wednesday and Thursday will be the key days to watch, as the environment will be primed for supercells, large hail, heavy downpours, and gusty winds. While the chance of a tornado remains low, it is not completely off the table, and that’s why residents across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are being urged to stay weather-aware.
On Wednesday afternoon and evening, the setup will be particularly concerning in parts of all three provinces. Supercell development is expected in areas east of Calgary, with storms possibly tracking into Saskatoon later in the day. These cells have the potential to produce hail measuring two to four centimeters across—large enough to damage vehicles, crops, and rooftops. In addition, southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba will also be in the mix for rotating storms.
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Meteorologists point to a combination of factors that make the situation unstable: high wind shear, strong surface heating, and plenty of available moisture. A nearby low-pressure center is expected to spark storm development. If these storms can break through a warm layer of air aloft, known as a “cap,” they may intensify quickly. That cap could limit storm growth in some spots, but if it is breached, the potential for severe weather—including rotating supercells—will increase.
By Thursday, the storm threat shifts eastward. A large and organized low-pressure system will settle over northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, dragging a cold front through the eastern Prairies. Along and south of that boundary, severe thunderstorms may fire up in southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. Winnipeg and Kenora are two areas that could see strong storms with damaging winds, torrential rain, and more hail. Meanwhile, northern parts of the provinces will be dealing with widespread rain rather than severe weather.
Temperatures will also take a noticeable dip behind the system. Regina, for example, will see highs fall from a hot 32°C on Wednesday to a much cooler 23°C on Thursday. Farther east, cooler air will linger into Friday and Saturday, with highs only reaching the mid-to-upper teens in some areas. By the weekend, however, a drier pattern is expected to settle in, offering a break from the stormy stretch.
This setup highlights once again how quickly the weather can shift on the Prairies—one day hot and stormy, the next day cooler and calmer. While tornado chances are low, the threat from large hail, strong winds, and flash flooding is real, and that’s enough to cause damage and disruptions. People across the region are encouraged to keep an eye on watches and warnings, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours when storms are most likely to develop.
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